ERS applied the 4 DIMENSIONS OF RISK™ to the 1,500 largest U.S. companies by market cap on each of 289 end-of-month dates from December 31, 2000 through December 31, 2024. Every rated stock was tracked for one year and grouped by its rating grade (A+ through F) — producing 433,500 individual data points. In 25 years of data, the rating gradient held without exception: higher grades earned higher returns.
1,500 largest U.S. companies · 289 end-of-month dates · Equal-weighted · 1-year holding periods
| Grade | # Ratings | 4D Return | S&P 500 | Excess | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 3,526 | +20.1% | 75.8% | ||
| A | 9,461 | +9.5% | 71.0% | ||
| B | 23,602 | +6.5% | 69.2% | ||
| C | 102,874 | +4.7% | 66.9% | ||
| D | 175,459 | +1.3% | 62.6% | ||
| E | 57,098 | -1.8% | 56.2% | ||
| F | 61,480 | -6.9% | 49.1% |
“A rating that separates the highest-return stocks from the lowest — consistently, across 25 years and 433,500 data points — is not a hypothesis. It is documented, reproducible, falsifiable evidence.”
— Raymond M. Mullaney, Founder & CEO, Equity Risk Sciences · 49 years of investment industry experienceThis is a historical simulation, not a live portfolio or backtest of a single strategy. The study covers the 1,500 largest U.S. companies by market cap on each of 289 end-of-month dates from December 31, 2000 through December 31, 2024. On each date, every company received a 4 DIMENSIONS OF RISK™ rating using only data available on that date. All companies sharing the same rating grade were pooled by date; each position was equal-weighted and held for one year. Returns shown are simple averages across all 433,500 individual ratings in each grade pool. S&P 500 comparisons substitute an equivalent one-year S&P 500 holding for each trade date in the same pool. Results do not reflect actual client trading, advisory fees, or transaction costs. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For registered investment advisors and qualified institutional investors only.
